{"id":3282,"date":"2026-07-28T21:37:08","date_gmt":"2026-07-28T21:37:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ptgeof.pl\/?page_id=3282"},"modified":"2026-07-28T21:37:08","modified_gmt":"2026-07-28T21:37:08","slug":"assessment-of-landslide-susceptibility-on-the-chillanes-san-pablo-de-atenas-road-bolivar-ecuador","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/ptgeof.pl\/?page_id=3282","title":{"rendered":"ASSESSMENT OF LANDSLIDE SUSCEPTIBILITY ON THE CHILLANES\u2013SAN PABLO DE ATENAS ROAD (BOL\u00cdVAR, ECUADOR)"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/a><\/a>ASSESSMENT OF LANDSLIDE SUSCEPTIBILITY ON THE CHILLANES\u2013SAN PABLO DE ATENAS ROAD (BOL\u00cdVAR, ECUADOR)<\/span>
\nOcena podatno\u015bci na osuwiska na odcinku drogi Chillanes\u2013San Pablo de Atenas (prowincja Bol\u00edvar, Ekwador)
\n<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Jhoselyn E. Mantilla Quintana, Grey I. Barrag\u00e1n Aroca<\/span><\/span><\/span>
\n<\/em>Przegl\u0105d Geofizyczny (2026) vol. 71, iss. 1-2, pp. 23-45<\/em><\/span>
\nhttps:\/\/doi.org\/10.32045\/PG-2026-059<\/span><\/p>\n

Streszczenie
\n<\/strong>Autostrada Chillanes-San Pablo de Atenas w Bol\u00edvar jest bardzo podatna na ruchy masy ze wzgl\u0119du na swoje cechy geomorfologiczne, geologiczne i hydrometeorologiczne. Ten problem spowodowa\u0142 powtarzaj\u0105ce si\u0119 uszkodzenia infrastruktury drogowej, takie jak osuwiska o du\u017cej skali, jak to, kt\u00f3re mia\u0142o miejsce na kilometrze 13 w 2020 roku. Celem tych bada\u0144 by\u0142o stworzenie kartograficznego modelu podatno\u015bci na osuwiska za pomoc\u0105 AHP-GIS, aby zidentyfikowa\u0107 obszary krytyczne i przyczyni\u0107 si\u0119 do zarz\u0105dzania ryzykiem drogowym na drodze Chillanes-San Pablo de Atenas. Rozwa\u017cano trzy g\u0142\u00f3wne zmienne: nachylenie, litologi\u0119 oraz blisko\u015b\u0107 dr\u00f3g, kt\u00f3re wa\u017cono przez por\u00f3wnania parowe i nak\u0142adano na siebie przez wa\u017cone wagi liniowe. Ostateczny model zosta\u0142 przeklasyfikowany na pi\u0119\u0107 klas podatno\u015bci: bardzo niska, niska, umiarkowana, wysoka i bardzo wysoka. Wyniki wykaza\u0142y, \u017ce obszary o wysokiej i bardzo wysokiej podatno\u015bci, po\u0142o\u017cone g\u0142\u00f3wnie mi\u0119dzy 13 a 14 kilometrami sektora Perez\u00e1n, stanowi\u0105 17,8% wszystkich analizowanych obszar\u00f3w. \u0141\u0105cznie wykryto 49 krytycznych segment\u00f3w o wysokim ryzyku osuwisk. Model zosta\u0142 zweryfikowany na podstawie krzywej ROC i uzyskano warto\u015b\u0107 pola poni\u017cej krzywej (AUC) 0,885, co oznacza, \u017ce jego wydajno\u015b\u0107 jest bardzo dobra, je\u015bli uwzgl\u0119dni\u0107 mi\u0119dzynarodowy standard. Model kartograficzny jest u\u017cytecznym narz\u0119dziem technicznym do zapobiegawczego zarz\u0105dzania ryzykiem geologicznym, poniewa\u017c umo\u017cliwia ustalanie priorytet\u00f3w interwencji, planowanie utrzymania dr\u00f3g oraz ograniczanie wp\u0142ywu przysz\u0142ych wydarze\u0144 na pobliskie spo\u0142eczno\u015bci i budynki. Wyniki te s\u0105 cennym narz\u0119dziem w zarz\u0105dzaniu drogami, poniewa\u017c sprzyjaj\u0105 priorytetowemu traktowaniu interwencji stabilizacyjnych, poprawiaj\u0105 planowanie konserwacji zapobiegawczej oraz zmniejszaj\u0105 podatno\u015b\u0107 infrastruktury i spo\u0142eczno\u015bci na przysz\u0142e osuwiska.
\n<\/span><\/p>\n

S\u0142owa kluczowe:<\/strong> ruchy masowe; podatno\u015b\u0107 na osuwiska; metoda analitycznego procesu hierarchicznego (AHP); krzywa ROC; model GIS<\/span><\/p>\n

Abstract
\n<\/strong>The Chillanes-San Pablo de Atenas highway, in Bol\u00edvar, is highly susceptible to mass movements due to its geomorphological, geological and hydrometeorological characteristics. This problem has caused repetitive damage to road infrastructure, such as large-scale landslides, including the event that occurred at km 13 in 2020. The purpose of this research was to generate a cartographic model of susceptibility to landslides using AHP-GIS to identify critical areas and contribute to road risk management on the Chillanes-San Pablo de Atenas Road. Three main variables were considered: slope, lithology and proximity to roads, which were weighted by paired comparison and overlapped by weighted linear weighting. The final model was reclassified into five susceptibility classes: very low, low, moderate, high, and very high. The findings showed that the areas of high and very high susceptibility, located mainly between kilometers 13 and 14 of the Perez\u00e1n sector, represent 17.8% of the total analyzed. In total, 49 critical segments with a high risk of landslides were detected. The model was validated with the ROC curve and an area under the curve (AUC) value of 0.885 was obtained, which means that its performance is very good if the international standard is considered. The cartographic model is a useful technical tool for the preventive management of geological risk, since it makes it possible to establish priorities for intervention, plan the maintenance of roads and reduce the effect of future events on nearby communities and structures. The results are a valuable tool for road management, as they favor the prioritization of stabilization interventions, improve preventive maintenance planning and reduce the susceptibility of infrastructures and communities to future landslides.
\n<\/span><\/p>\n

Keywords<\/strong>: landslides; landslide susceptibility; Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP); ROC curve; GIS model<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Article is licensed under <\/span>CC BY 4.0<\/span><\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n

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